Interest Rates Steady for the 11th straight month

Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision

At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.75 per cent.

Conditions in global financial markets have continued to be very unsettled, with uncertainty increasing about both the prospects for resolution of the sovereign debt and banking problems in Europe, and the outlook for global economic growth. While temporary impediments that had contributed to a slowing in growth in some countries over recent months are lessening, recent data suggest a continuing period of soft economic conditions in both Europe and the United States. Moreover, the uncertainty and financial volatility have reduced confidence, which could result in more cautious behaviour by firms and households in major countries.

It will take more time for evidence of any effects of the recent European and US financial turbulence on economic activity in other regions to emerge. Thus far, indications are that economic activity is continuing to expand in China and most of Asia. Nonetheless, recent events have led forecasters to reduce their estimates for global GDP growth, which is now expected to be about average this year and next. Prices for commodities have declined over recent weeks, though in general they remain high.

Australia's terms of trade are very high, which has increased national income considerably. Investment in the resources sector is picking up very strongly and some related service sectors are enjoying better than average conditions. In other sectors, cautious behaviour by households and the earlier rise in the exchange rate have had a noticeable dampening effect. The impetus from earlier Australian Government spending programs is now also abating, as had been intended. While there remain good reasons to expect solid growth over the medium term, the indications are that the pace of near-term growth is unlikely to be as strong as earlier expected, due both to local and global factors, including the financial turmoil and related effects on business confidence.

Underlying inflation stopped falling and began to increase earlier this year. The Board has been concerned about the prospect of a further pick-up over the period ahead, but over recent months has been weighing the question of whether a period of weaker than expected conditions would contain that pick-up in inflation. Recently revised data show a pick-up to date in the underlying pace of price rises that was less sharp than initially indicated. Moreover, with labour market conditions now a little softer and households more concerned about the possibility of unemployment rising, the likelihood of a significant acceleration in labour costs outside the resources and related sectors is lessening.

Taking into account all the recent information, the path for inflation may now be more consistent with the2–3 per cent target in 2012 and 2013, abstracting from the impact of the carbon pricing scheme. This assessment will be reviewed on receipt of further data on prices ahead of the Board's next meeting. An improved inflation outlook would increase the scope for monetary policy to provide some support to demand, should that prove necessary.

The Board noted that financial conditions have been easing somewhat, with interest rates for some housing and business loans declining slightly due to increased competition and the fall in some funding costs in financial markets. The exchange rate has also declined from the very high levels of a few months ago. Credit growth remains low, however, and asset prices have declined.

At today's meeting the Board judged the current cash rate remained appropriate. As always, the Board will continue to assess carefully the evolving outlook for growth and inflation.

Refinanced with Ubank after 4 months waiting

There have been recent reports about how the big banks have been desperately chasing the mortgage dollar more than ever before. With UBank taking out a global award for its innovative UHomeLoan product, there is little wonder that other banks are starting to react after years of intransigence.

 I haven't bought a place but after what you could say a "restructure", I am married now and the two of us are paying off a mortgage. We were with one of the Big Four banks when I suggested that we refinance with Ubank at the rate of 6.59%. It was late in May that the application was submitted and after four months, the account is up and running.

Money that I've transferred into the new account has made it into the account and we're off and running! I thought it would be interesting to share what its been like for those that may be on the investigative stage of refinancing. I have not been very happy with the time taken for Ubank to process the refinancing as time = money especially when we are working with a mortgage. I calculated that the delay was worth about $1000 in unnecessary interest paid on the property.

Having said that, the rate is low and very competitive which is probably what accounted for some of the delay at least. Having received our welcome pack from Ubank, with a tea towel thrown in, we hope that the journey from here is more smooth. We like the fact that we can top up on the loan anytime we like, and redraw in lots of $1000 any time that we are ahead on schedule. There seems to be a little delay on funds transfers with each amount taking around 2 days to hit the bank. If you transfer on a Friday, you probably won't see it in the Ubank account until Tuesday as weekends are not working days. Not sure of the interest ramifications of this.

 Ubank's product is much less complicated than other providers and my hope that their Uhomeloan will mature so that we can see more than just a boring transaction history but more like the rest of Ubank's products where SMS alerts, graphs etc can make even checking your home loan an enjoyable experience.

What is your experience with home loans? How would you make things more enjoyable and are you considering refinancing?

Our other post on Uhomeloan.

Homeowners breathe another sigh of relief - Interest rates unchanged

Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision

At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.75 per cent.

The global economy is continuing its expansion, but the pace of growth slowed in the June quarter. The supply-chain disruptions from the Japanese earthquake and the dampening effects of high commodity prices on income and spending in major countries both contributed to the slowing. It is still not clear how persistent this slower growth will be. The supply-chain disruptions are now gradually abating and commodity prices have softened of late, though they generally remain high. In China most indications suggest only a mild slowdown so far.

The central scenario for the world economy over the next couple of years envisaged by most forecasters remains one of growth below the pace of 2010, but at or above long-term averages. Downside risks have increased, however, as concerns have grown over the outlook for the public finances of both Europe and the United States.

Australia's terms of trade are now at very high levels and national income has been growing strongly. Investment in the resources sector is picking up very strongly and some related service sectors are enjoying better than average conditions. But in other sectors, cautious behaviour by households and the high level of the exchange rate are having a noticeable dampening effect. The impetus from earlier Australian Government spending programs is now also abating, as had been intended.

The resumption of coal production continues, but a full recovery of flood-affected production now looks unlikely before early next year. Precautionary behaviour by households also looks likely to keep some areas of demand weaker in the near term than earlier expected. Overall, growth in real GDP through 2011 is now likely to be at about trend. Over the medium term, overall growth is still likely to be at trend or higher, unless the world economy deteriorates noticeably.

Growth in employment has moderated and the unemployment rate has been little changed, near 5 per cent, for some time now. Reports of skills shortages remain confined, at this point, to the resources and related sectors. After the significant decline in 2009, growth in wages has returned to rates seen prior to the downturn, though productivity growth remains weak.

Year-ended CPI inflation has been high, affected by the extreme weather events earlier in the year. As these effects reverse over the next couple of quarters, CPI inflation should decline. But measures that give a better indication of the trend in inflation have begun to rise over the past six months, after declining for the previous two years. While they have, to date, remained consistent with the 2–3 per cent target on a year-ended basis, the Board remains concerned about the medium-term outlook for inflation.

It is appropriate under such circumstances for monetary policy to exert a degree of restraint. Most financial indicators suggest that it has been doing so, as a result of the Board's decisions last year. Credit growth has declined over recent months and is very subdued by historical standards, even with evidence of greater willingness to lend. Most asset prices, including housing prices, have also softened over recent months. The exchange rate is high. Each of these variables is affected by other factors as well, but together they point to financial conditions being tighter than normal.

At today's meeting, the Board considered whether the recent information warranted further policy tightening. On balance, the Board judged that it was prudent to maintain the current setting of monetary policy, particularly in view of the acute sense of uncertainty in global financial markets over recent weeks. In future meetings, the Board will continue to assess carefully the evolving outlook for growth and inflation.