RBA Holds Cash Rate Steady

The RBA has hit pause, choosing not to add to the ten rate rises in the past year. Here is their statement released today. 

At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 3.60 per cent and the interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances unchanged at 3.50 per cent.

This decision follows a cumulative increase in interest rates of 3½ percentage points since May last year. The Board recognises that monetary policy operates with a lag and that the full effect of this substantial increase in interest rates is yet to be felt. The Board took the decision to hold interest rates steady this month to provide additional time to assess the impact of the increase in interest rates to date and the economic outlook.

Global inflation remains very high. In headline terms it is moderating, although services price inflation remains high in many economies. The outlook for the global economy remains subdued, with below-average growth expected this year and next. The recent banking system problems in the United States and Switzerland have resulted in volatility in financial markets and a reassessment of the outlook for global interest rates. These problems are also expected to lead to tighter financial conditions, which would be an additional headwind for the global economy.

The Australian banking system is strong, well capitalised and highly liquid. It is well placed to provide the credit that the economy needs.

A range of information, including the monthly CPI indicator, suggests that inflation has peaked in Australia. Goods price inflation is expected to moderate over the months ahead due to global developments and softer demand in Australia. Meanwhile, rents are increasing at the fastest rate in some years, with vacancy rates low in many parts of the country. The prices of utilities are also rising quickly. The central forecast is for inflation to decline this year and next, to around 3 per cent in mid-2025. Medium-term inflation expectations remain well anchored, and it is important that this remains the case.

Growth in the Australian economy has slowed, with growth over the next couple of years expected to be below trend. There is further evidence that the combination of higher interest rates, cost-of-living pressures and a decline in housing prices is leading to a substantial slowing in household spending. While some households have substantial savings buffers, others are experiencing a painful squeeze on their finances.

The labour market remains very tight. The unemployment rate is at a near 50-year low and underemployment is also low. Many firms continue to experience difficulty hiring workers, although some report an easing in labour shortages and the number of vacancies has declined a little. As economic growth slows, unemployment is expected to increase.

Wages growth is continuing to increase in response to the tight labour market and higher inflation. At the aggregate level, wages growth is still consistent with the inflation target, provided that productivity growth picks up. The Board remains alert to the risk of a prices-wages spiral, given the limited spare capacity in the economy and the historically low rate of unemployment. Accordingly, it will continue to pay close attention to both the evolution of labour costs and the price-setting behaviour of firms.

The Board’s priority is to return inflation to target. High inflation makes life difficult for people and damages the functioning of the economy. And if high inflation were to become entrenched in people’s expectations, it would be very costly to reduce later, involving even higher interest rates and a larger rise in unemployment. The Board is seeking to return inflation to the 2–3 per cent target range while keeping the economy on an even keel, but the path to achieving a soft landing remains a narrow one.

The Board expects that some further tightening of monetary policy may well be needed to ensure that inflation returns to target. The decision to hold interest rates steady this month provides the Board with more time to assess the state of the economy and the outlook, in an environment of considerable uncertainty. In assessing when and how much further interest rates need to increase, the Board will be paying close attention to developments in the global economy, trends in household spending and the outlook for inflation and the labour market. The Board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that.

3.60% Cash Rate up another 25 basis points

The Reserve Bank has increased the cash rate again for Australia which is now at 3.60%. Here is their statement released a few minutes ago - 

At its meeting today, the Board decided to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 3.60 per cent. It also increased the interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances by 25 basis points to 3.50 per cent.

Global inflation remains very high. In headline terms it is moderating, although services price inflation remains elevated in many economies. It will be some time before inflation is back to target rates. The outlook for the global economy remains subdued, with below average growth expected this year and next.

The monthly CPI indicator suggests that inflation has peaked in Australia. Goods price inflation is expected to moderate over the months ahead due to both global developments and softer demand in Australia. Services price inflation remains high, with strong demand for some services over the summer. Rents are increasing at the fastest rate in some years, with vacancy rates low in many parts of the country. The central forecast is for inflation to decline this year and next, to be around 3 per cent in mid-2025. Medium-term inflation expectations remain well anchored, and it is important that this remains the case.

Growth in the Australian economy has slowed, with GDP increasing by 0.5 per cent in the December quarter and 2.7 per cent over the year. Growth over the next couple of years is expected to be below trend. Household consumption growth has slowed due to the tighter financial conditions and the outlook for housing construction has softened. In contrast, the outlook for business investment remains positive, with many businesses operating at a very high level of capacity utilisation.

The labour market remains very tight, although conditions have eased a little. The unemployment rate remains at close to a 50-year low. Employment fell in January, but this partly reflects changing seasonal patterns in labour hiring. Many firms continue to experience difficulty hiring workers, although some report a recent easing in labour shortages. As economic growth slows, unemployment is expected to increase.

Wages growth is continuing to pick up in response to the tight labour market and higher inflation. At the aggregate level, wages growth is still consistent with the inflation target and recent data suggest a lower risk of a cycle in which prices and wages chase one another. The Board, however, remains alert to the risk of a prices-wages spiral, given the limited spare capacity in the economy and the historically low rate of unemployment. Accordingly, it will continue to pay close attention to both the evolution of labour costs and the price-setting behaviour of firms.

The Board recognises that monetary policy operates with a lag and that the full effect of the cumulative increase in interest rates is yet to be felt in mortgage payments. There is uncertainty around the timing and extent of the slowdown in household spending. Some households have substantial savings buffers, but others are experiencing a painful squeeze on their budgets due to higher interest rates and the increase in the cost of living. Household balance sheets are also being affected by the decline in housing prices. Another source of uncertainty is how the global economy responds to the large and rapid increase in interest rates around the world. These uncertainties mean that there are a range of potential scenarios for the Australian economy.

The Board’s priority is to return inflation to target. High inflation makes life difficult for people and damages the functioning of the economy. And if high inflation were to become entrenched in people’s expectations, it would be very costly to reduce later, involving even higher interest rates and a larger rise in unemployment. The Board is seeking to return inflation to the 2–3 per cent target range while keeping the economy on an even keel, but the path to achieving a soft landing remains a narrow one.

The Board expects that further tightening of monetary policy will be needed to ensure that inflation returns to target and that this period of high inflation is only temporary. In assessing when and how much further interest rates need to increase, the Board will be paying close attention to developments in the global economy, trends in household spending and the outlook for inflation and the labour market. The Board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that.

Can you really blame the RBA?

Inflation is everyone's problem. When prices go up for all things, our ability to buy decreases. In order to reduce inflation, the cost of borrowing money has to increase to reduce demand. However, when you are on a mortgage, this creates a double whammy effect on your budget. While things go up in price, so does the interest rate on your house which means your loan repayments increase as well. 

Here is the inflation chart for Australia which gives you an idea about why the interest rates have had to increase significantly over the last year. Inflation has shot up since the COVID pandemic and the RBA needs to increase rates to reign it in. With inflation at almost 8% this year which is more three times the target range, the warning of more rate rises to come could be one way the RBA can reduce inflation in the coming month before another possible increase. With everyone piling on the RBA, you have to wonder whether the RBA can be blamed?